The card
In 3 days, 28 October 2026 · as at 25 October 2026
- Venue
- Mallee Park
- Code
- Thoroughbred
- Class
- Maiden
- Distance
- 1200m
- Surface
- Turf
- Cycle
- Day
- Each way
- 1/5 odds, places 1-2-3
The Maiden Flat is race one at Mallee Park, 1200 metres at 12.46pm in three days, draw id MAL-R1-3FF9AC. The 1200 starts in the chute, because the engine does not start a field in a bend, and runs to the 400 metre straight. The book is 119.5 across ten.
Start with the word on the card. Maiden here is a class label the programme attaches to a race, not a statement about the field, and these ten runners have 61 career wins between them. There is no eligibility rule being bent because there is no eligibility rule: how a virtual race is decided explains why class on this circuit describes the card and not the runner.
The weighting table is top-loaded and close at the top. Dry Lightning holds 236 of the 1,000 numbers from barrier nine, Ridgeback 212 from barrier eight and Bitumen 188 from barrier seven — 48 numbers from first block to third, and 636 of the 1,000 between the three of them. The other seven share 364, and Marble Bar and Old Telegraph hold 31 each at the same $27.02.
Field
10 runners · no scratchings on this circuit
| No | Colours | Barrier | Runner | Jockey | Trainer | Form | Record | Price | Numbers | Implied | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Marble Bar | Kaz Tupou | Vera Lindqvist | 98367 | 29-6-3-3 | 27.02 | 31 | 3.7% | Thirty-one numbers from barrier one, tied with barrier two on the block and on the price at $27.02, with six career wins from 29 starts. | |
| 2 | 2 | Old Telegraph | Jonty Mapp | Coen McTiernan | 26837 | 34-5-6-4 | 27.02 | 31 | 3.7% | Thirty-one numbers off barrier two, the same block and the same price as barrier one, from 34 starts for five wins. | |
| 3 | 3 | Fence Line | Priya Sandhu | Faisal Karim | 57243 | 41-4-5-9 | 9.31 | 90 | 10.7% | Ninety numbers from barrier three, fourth block, with nine career thirds from 41 starts. | |
| 4 | 4 | Ninepin | Eli Vandermeer | Dorrie Slack-Smith | 31452 | 43-4-10-4 | 44.08 | 19 | 2.3% | Nineteen numbers off barrier four, the thinnest block on the card at $44.08, against 43 starts for four wins and ten seconds. | |
| 5 | 5 | Sunday Pages | Cleo Baird | Nam Tran | 18785 | 46-11-8-6 | 10.47 | 80 | 9.6% | Eighty numbers from barrier five, fifth on the table, with eleven career wins from 46 starts. | |
| 6 | 6 | Half Mast | Ruby Nankervis | Dorrie Slack-Smith | 35510 | 25-5-3-2 | 10.74 | 78 | 9.3% | Seventy-eight numbers off barrier six, two numbers behind barrier five, 9.3 per cent implied. | |
| 7 | 7 | Bitumen | Ora Benjafield | Bronwyn Esch | 54204 | 34-3-8-4 | 4.45 | 188 | 22.5% | One hundred and eighty-eight numbers from barrier seven, third block, against the weakest career strike rate in the field at 8.8 per cent. | |
| 8 | 8 | Ridgeback | Gina Mavros | Hugh Pentland | 5980 | 16-3-3-3 | 3.95 | 212 | 25.3% | Two hundred and twelve numbers off barrier eight, second block, twenty-four numbers behind the top and 281 in the Jacaranda Cup the day before. | |
| 9 | 9 | Dry Lightning | Noor Haddad | Trudy Aspinall | 04926 | 31-7-5-4 | 3.55 | 236 | 28.2% | The top block at 236 numbers from barrier nine, 23.6 per cent, and seven of the field's 61 career wins. | |
| 10 | 10 | Pennyroyal | Rhys Calder | Vera Lindqvist | 22230 | 49-13-6-7 | 23.93 | 35 | 4.2% | Thirty-five numbers off barrier ten with thirteen career wins from 49 starts, the most in the field, and the best strike rate at 26.5 per cent. |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column.
Prices on this page are the draw weighting in another notation. They are reference figures published with the card, not odds available anywhere, and not a betting recommendation.
A field is fixed when the card is published: there are no scratchings, no non-runners and no starting price. Why that follows from the draw.
The draw
The result is a weighted draw of 1,000 numbers without replacement: each runner holds a block of numbers in proportion to its price, a number is drawn once, and the animation is rendered from the order that comes out. Everything used to produce this race is printed below, so the race can be reconstructed.
- Draw id
- MAL-R1-3FF9AC
- Engine
- GP-Draw 4.2
- Seed
- 3ff9ac93c5a53a82
- Numbers in the draw
- 1,000
- Book
- 119.5%
- Margin
- 19.5%
A draw without replacement cannot produce a dead heat, and a field that is fixed at publication cannot produce a late scratching. How a virtual race is decided works through the arithmetic in full.
The form desk
-
Top of the market
3.55 236 numbers · 23.6% true
-
Where the book is thinnest
3.95 212 numbers · 21.2% true
-
The outsider
44.08 19 numbers · 1.9% true
As ever, and first: the draw is weighted and independent, no form reads forward into it, and this column argues about the published numbers instead of predicting the finish. The full version is in the form desk.
Forty-eight numbers across the three thickest blocks is what a nearly level top looks like. Dry Lightning at $3.55, Ridgeback at $3.95 and Bitumen at $4.45 are three prices inside ninety cents, because the blocks are inside 48 numbers. Below them the card falls away steeply: the fourth block is 90 and the tenth is 19.
Bitumen is the line that makes the point. It has three wins from 34 starts, the weakest career strike rate in the field at 8.8 per cent, and it holds the third block. Pennyroyal has the best at 26.5 per cent and holds 35 numbers. The engine read neither figure, because there is nowhere in the engine to read them into.
Marble Bar and Old Telegraph on 31 numbers each show what a price is for. Both are printed at $27.02 for 3.7 per cent. They have eleven career wins between them, won at different venues at different prices, and the table does not know and does not need to. A fixed price on this circuit is the block in another notation and nothing else.
Wren Tabakoff, Editor
Form desk columns are editorial opinion only. They are not financial advice, not investment recommendations and not an inducement to wager. A weighted draw has no form to read in the predictive sense; what these columns argue about is the published weighting.
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