Class C Sprint

The card

2 days ago, 23 October 2026 · as at 25 October 2026

Venue: Saltbush Flat
Code: Thoroughbred
Class: Class C
Distance: 1000m
Surface: Turf
Cycle: Day
Each way: 1/4 odds, places 1-2-3-4

The Class C Sprint was race seven at Saltbush Flat, 1000 metres in a straight line at 3.48pm two days ago. Draw id SAL-R7-EDA30F, seed eda30f10c58d7b7c, settled at 15:49 on a book of 126.3 across twelve — the second-largest book on the circuit.

Half Mast held 210 of the 1,000 numbers from barrier twelve, with Old Telegraph at barrier six and Dry Lightning at barrier eleven on 185 each — identical blocks, both printed at $4.28 for an implied 23.4 per cent. Long Paddock held 121. Seven of the twelve held fewer than a hundred numbers and Bitumen, on nine, was at $87.90.

The each-way terms were a quarter of the odds for places one to four, and all four of those placings went to the four thickest blocks on the card. That is not a pattern and it is not evidence of one: it is a sequence a weighted draw without replacement produces from time to time, and the seed above lets anyone reconstruct the whole of it.

Field

12 runners · no scratchings on this circuit

No	Barrier	Runner	Jockey	Trainer	Form	Record	Price	Numbers	Implied	Note
1	1	Ninepin	Ruby Nankervis	Dorrie Slack-Smith	85314	41-4-9-4	11.63	68	8.6%	Sixty-eight numbers from barrier one, sixth on the table, 8.6 per cent implied.
2	2	Tally Room	Cleo Baird	Hugh Pentland	31150	32-8-5-2	7.46	106	13.4%	One hundred and six numbers off barrier two, fifth block, at $7.46.
3	3	Stockyard Gate	Jonty Mapp	Faisal Karim	14411	41-8-5-3	37.67	21	2.7%	Twenty-one numbers from barrier three, ninth on the table, 2.7 per cent implied.
4	4	Sunday Pages	Kaz Tupou	Nam Tran	80187	44-11-8-6	21.98	36	4.5%	Thirty-six numbers off barrier four at $21.98, seventh on the table.
5	5	Bitumen	Priya Sandhu	Bronwyn Esch	87542	32-3-8-4	87.90	9	1.1%	Nine numbers from barrier five, the thinnest block on the card, at $87.90, carrying 0.2 points of the 26.3 the book added.
6	6	Old Telegraph	Eli Vandermeer	Coen McTiernan	81268	32-5-6-3	4.28	185	23.4%	One hundred and eighty-five numbers off barrier six, tied for second block with barrier eleven and tied with it at $4.28.
7	7	Marble Bar	Rhys Calder	Vera Lindqvist	19836	28-6-3-3	26.37	30	3.8%	Thirty numbers from barrier seven, eighth on the table, 3.8 per cent implied.
8	8	Tin Whistle	Linc Pappas	Coen McTiernan	81014	32-6-6-4	49.45	16	2.0%	Sixteen numbers off barrier eight at $49.45, tenth on the table.
9	9	Pennyroyal	Gina Mavros	Vera Lindqvist	32223	48-13-6-7	60.86	13	1.6%	Thirteen numbers from barrier nine, 1.6 per cent implied, the second-thinnest block on the card.
10	10	Long Paddock	Noor Haddad	Trudy Aspinall	2392	32-5-7-5	6.54	121	15.3%	One hundred and twenty-one numbers off barrier ten, fourth block, 15.3 per cent implied.
11	11	Dry Lightning	Ora Benjafield	Trudy Aspinall	78049	29-7-4-4	4.28	185	23.4%	One hundred and eighty-five numbers from barrier eleven, the same block and the same $4.28 as barrier six.
12	12	Half Mast	Teddy Lamb	Dorrie Slack-Smith	14355	23-4-3-2	3.77	210	26.5%	The top block at 210 numbers from barrier twelve, 21.0 per cent, and 5.5 points of margin on a book of 126.3.

Prices on this page are the draw weighting in another notation. They are reference figures published with the card, not odds available anywhere, and not a betting recommendation.

A field is fixed when the card is published: there are no scratchings, no non-runners and no starting price. Why that follows from the draw.

The draw

The result is a weighted draw of 1,000 numbers without replacement: each runner holds a block of numbers in proportion to its price, a number is drawn once, and the animation is rendered from the order that comes out. Everything used to produce this race is printed below, so the race can be reconstructed.

Draw id: SAL-R7-EDA30F
Engine: GP-Draw 4.2
Seed: eda30f10c58d7b7c
Numbers in the draw: 1,000
Book: 126.3%
Margin: 26.3%

Drawn order, by saddlecloth: 12 → 11 → 6 → 10 → 1 → 2 → 7 → 4 → 8 → 3 → 5 → 9

A draw without replacement cannot produce a dead heat, and a field that is fixed at publication cannot produce a late scratching. How a virtual race is decided works through the arithmetic in full.

Result

Pos	Runner	Jockey	Time	Margin	Price	Implied
1	Half Mast	Teddy Lamb	57.2	—	3.77	26.5%
2	Dry Lightning	Ora Benjafield		1.8L	4.28	23.4%
3	Old Telegraph	Eli Vandermeer		2.0L	4.28	23.4%
4	Long Paddock	Noor Haddad		2.4L	6.54	15.3%
5	Ninepin	Ruby Nankervis		5.1L	11.63	8.6%
6	Tally Room	Cleo Baird		9.4L	7.46	13.4%
7	Marble Bar	Rhys Calder		11L	26.37	3.8%
8	Sunday Pages	Kaz Tupou		15L	21.98	4.5%
9	Tin Whistle	Linc Pappas		17L	49.45	2.0%
10	Stockyard Gate	Jonty Mapp		20L	37.67	2.7%
11	Bitumen	Priya Sandhu		26L	87.90	1.1%
12	Pennyroyal	Gina Mavros		34L	60.86	1.6%

The draw came out 12, 11, 6, 10, which is the four thickest blocks on the card in descending order, so the placings and the weighting table agreed for the first four and then stopped agreeing. Half Mast's 210 numbers held in 57.2, the pair on 185 came out second and third two-tenths of a length apart, and 34 lengths covered first to last.

Dividends

Win: $3.77
Place: $1.77
Forecast: $7.68
Tricast: $12.56

Dividends are what the published weighting implies for a one-credit stake in the free demo. Nothing is staked on this circuit and nothing is paid out.

The form desk

Top of the market

Half Mast

3.77 210 numbers · 21.0% true
Where the book is thinnest

Long Paddock

6.54 121 numbers · 12.1% true
The outsider

Pennyroyal

60.86 13 numbers · 1.3% true

Stated before anything else, because the rest reads wrong without it: the order was drawn from the published table, and the fact that it came out tidily is a property of this draw and not of these runners.

Four placings, four blocks, in order: 210, 185, 185, 121. The first four out held 701 of the 1,000 numbers between them, which makes a tidy opening considerably more likely than it sounds and still not likely. After that the sequence breaks — the fifth out held 68 numbers and the sixth held 106 — and the rest of the card is the shuffle a draw usually looks like.

The pair on 185 is the line to keep. Old Telegraph and Dry Lightning held the same block and the same price and came out third and second, two-tenths of a rendered length apart. There was nothing between them in the table and there is nothing between them in the result that the table could have anticipated.

Thirty-four lengths covered first to last, the widest spread of rendered margin on the resulted programme, over the shortest trip the circuit programmes on turf. Pennyroyal, which came out last from thirteen numbers, has the best career strike rate of any runner that has appeared on the programme.

Mo Farrelly, Form desk

Form desk columns are editorial opinion only. They are not financial advice, not investment recommendations and not an inducement to wager. A weighted draw has no form to read in the predictive sense; what these columns argue about is the published weighting.

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