Tin Creek Classic

The card

Tomorrow, 26 October 2026 · as at 25 October 2026

Venue: Tin Creek
Code: Thoroughbred
Class: Feature
Distance: 1600m
Surface: Synthetic
Cycle: All
Each way: 1/5 odds, places 1-2-3

The Tin Creek Classic is 1600 metres on the synthetic at Tin Creek at 4.02pm tomorrow, draw id TIN-R7-D2A1B6. The lap is 1500 metres, so the trip is a circuit and 100 metres, and the book is 119.5 across ten.

The weighting table separates one runner from the field. Sunday Pages holds 327 of the 1,000 numbers from barrier five, 32.7 per cent, and the next block is Tally Room on 157. One hundred and seventy numbers from first block to second is the widest such gap on the thirteen cards still to run. Six of the ten hold fewer than a hundred, and the thinnest, Bitumen on fifteen, is at $55.83.

Tin Creek is the only venue with an All cycle and the only one whose surface never changes, so this card carries no track rating and no going figure, and never will. What it does carry is the full weight vector, the seed and the settle time, which between them let the whole race be reconstructed afterwards.

Field

10 runners · no scratchings on this circuit

No	Barrier	Runner	Jockey	Trainer	Form	Record	Price	Numbers	Implied	Note
1	1	Dry Lightning	Priya Sandhu	Trudy Aspinall	04926	31-7-5-4	5.70	147	17.5%	One hundred and forty-seven numbers from barrier one, third block, after running second in the Class C Sprint at Saltbush Flat three days earlier from a block of 185.
2	2	Ninepin	Cleo Baird	Dorrie Slack-Smith	31452	43-4-10-4	12.69	66	7.9%	Sixty-six numbers off barrier two, 6.6 per cent, with ten seconds in 43 career starts and a strike rate of 9.3 per cent.
3	3	Old Telegraph	Eli Vandermeer	Coen McTiernan	26837	34-5-6-4	21.47	39	4.7%	Thirty-nine numbers from barrier three at $21.47, seventh on the table, from 34 starts for five wins.
4	4	Switchyard	Jonty Mapp	Bronwyn Esch	48758	34-5-3-3	12.14	69	8.2%	Sixty-nine numbers off barrier four, fifth block, three numbers clear of barrier two.
5	5	Sunday Pages	Ruby Nankervis	Nam Tran	18785	46-11-8-6	2.56	327	39.1%	The top block at 327 numbers from barrier five, 32.7 per cent, and 39.1 per cent implied — the shortest price on the card at $2.56.
6	6	Bitumen	Kaz Tupou	Bronwyn Esch	54204	34-3-8-4	55.83	15	1.8%	Fifteen numbers off barrier six, the thinnest block on the card, 1.8 per cent implied, carrying 0.3 points of the 19.5 the book adds.
7	7	Tally Room	Ora Benjafield	Hugh Pentland	15069	34-8-5-2	5.33	157	18.8%	One hundred and fifty-seven numbers from barrier seven, second block, with eight career wins from 34 starts.
8	8	Half Mast	Gina Mavros	Dorrie Slack-Smith	35510	25-5-3-2	32.21	26	3.1%	Twenty-six numbers off barrier eight, three days after winning that Saltbush Flat sprint from a block of 210 at $3.77.
9	9	Ridgeback	Noor Haddad	Hugh Pentland	5980	16-3-3-3	26.17	32	3.8%	Thirty-two numbers from barrier nine, 3.2 per cent, and 281 numbers in the Jacaranda Cup the day after.
10	10	Long Paddock	Linc Pappas	Trudy Aspinall	23924	33-5-7-5	6.86	122	14.6%	One hundred and twenty-two numbers off barrier ten, fourth block, after finishing fourth in that Saltbush Flat sprint from 121.

Prices on this page are the draw weighting in another notation. They are reference figures published with the card, not odds available anywhere, and not a betting recommendation.

A field is fixed when the card is published: there are no scratchings, no non-runners and no starting price. Why that follows from the draw.

The draw

The result is a weighted draw of 1,000 numbers without replacement: each runner holds a block of numbers in proportion to its price, a number is drawn once, and the animation is rendered from the order that comes out. Everything used to produce this race is printed below, so the race can be reconstructed.

Draw id: TIN-R7-D2A1B6
Engine: GP-Draw 4.2
Seed: d2a1b66edf002be5
Numbers in the draw: 1,000
Book: 119.5%
Margin: 19.5%

A draw without replacement cannot produce a dead heat, and a field that is fixed at publication cannot produce a late scratching. How a virtual race is decided works through the arithmetic in full.

The form desk

Top of the market

Sunday Pages

2.56 327 numbers · 32.7% true
Where the book is thinnest

Dry Lightning

5.70 147 numbers · 14.7% true
The outsider

Half Mast

32.21 26 numbers · 2.6% true

The line this desk prints on every card: the finishing order is drawn from the published table, so form has no purchase on it, and the argument below concerns the numbers. The desk files this one as firm, and the full column is in the form desk.

A 170-number gap between the first and second blocks is the widest of the thirteen cards still to run, and it is what firm means here: the table has something to say before the draw. It still says nothing about the draw itself. Three hundred and twenty-seven numbers is 32.7 per cent, which means the other nine runners hold 673 between them and the race is lost by the top block roughly two times in three.

Five days before this card, on this same synthetic, Sunday Pages ran seventh of ten from 29 numbers at $28.86 and was beaten eleven lengths. Tomorrow it holds 327. Both figures are printed, neither was derived from the other, and the explanation is in why form cannot predict a draw.

Two blocks on this card belong to runners who filled the first two placings in the Saltbush Flat sprint three days earlier. Half Mast won it from 210 numbers and holds 26 here. Dry Lightning was beaten 1.8 lengths from 185 and holds 147. One went down by a factor of eight, the other by a fifth, and the result of that sprint is in neither figure.

Mo Farrelly, Form desk

Form desk columns are editorial opinion only. They are not financial advice, not investment recommendations and not an inducement to wager. A weighted draw has no form to read in the predictive sense; what these columns argue about is the published weighting.

Gambling involves risk. If gambling is causing you harm, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 (free, 24/7) or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.