The card
4 days ago, 21 October 2026 · as at 25 October 2026
- Venue
- Tin Creek
- Code
- Thoroughbred
- Class
- Class A
- Distance
- 2000m
- Surface
- Synthetic
- Cycle
- All
- Each way
- 1/5 odds, places 1-2-3
The Class A Synthetic was race eight at Tin Creek, 2000 metres at 4.26pm four days ago. Draw id TIN-R8-00ABCC, seed 00abcc8a052939f5, settled at 16:27 on a book of 119.4 across ten. The lap is 1500 metres, so the trip was a circuit and 500 metres.
Ninepin held 273 of the 1,000 numbers from barrier one, 27.3 per cent, with Paper Lantern on 213 from barrier four and Stockyard Gate on 152 from barrier two. Those three held 638 and the other seven shared 362. The thinnest block was Dry Lightning on 20, at $41.84.
Tin Creek is the all-weather venue and the only one that races around the clock, so the surface is a constant and there was no going line on this card and no track rating. What the card did carry is the full weight vector, the seed, the draw id and the settle time, which is the whole of what a reconstruction needs.
Field
10 runners · no scratchings on this circuit
| No | Colours | Barrier | Runner | Jockey | Trainer | Form | Record | Price | Numbers | Implied | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ninepin | Jonty Mapp | Dorrie Slack-Smith | 8531 | 40-4-9-4 | 3.07 | 273 | 32.6% | The top block at 273 numbers from barrier one, 27.3 per cent, and the shortest price on the card at $3.07. | |
| 2 | 2 | Stockyard Gate | Priya Sandhu | Faisal Karim | 21441 | 40-7-5-3 | 5.51 | 152 | 18.1% | One hundred and fifty-two numbers off barrier two, third block, 61 behind the second. | |
| 3 | 3 | Pennyroyal | Cleo Baird | Vera Lindqvist | 3222 | 47-13-6-6 | 8.29 | 101 | 12.1% | One hundred and one numbers from barrier three, fourth block, 12.1 per cent implied. | |
| 4 | 4 | Paper Lantern | Ruby Nankervis | Nam Tran | 5043 | 56-13-8-6 | 3.93 | 213 | 25.4% | Two hundred and thirteen numbers off barrier four, second block, 60 behind the top. | |
| 5 | 5 | Sunday Pages | Eli Vandermeer | Nam Tran | 08018 | 43-11-8-6 | 28.86 | 29 | 3.5% | Twenty-nine numbers from barrier five at $28.86, ninth on the table. | |
| 6 | 6 | Dry Lightning | Kaz Tupou | Trudy Aspinall | 7804 | 28-7-4-4 | 41.84 | 20 | 2.4% | Twenty numbers off barrier six, the thinnest block on the card, carrying 0.4 points of the 19.4 the book added. | |
| 7 | 7 | Switchyard | Teddy Lamb | Bronwyn Esch | 47487 | 32-5-3-3 | 18.60 | 45 | 5.4% | Forty-five numbers from barrier seven, sixth on the table, 5.4 per cent implied. | |
| 8 | 8 | Tally Room | Rhys Calder | Hugh Pentland | 93115 | 31-8-5-2 | 22.62 | 37 | 4.4% | Thirty-seven numbers off barrier eight, seventh on the table, at $22.62. | |
| 9 | 9 | Old Telegraph | Linc Pappas | Coen McTiernan | 18126 | 31-5-6-3 | 8.54 | 98 | 11.7% | Ninety-eight numbers from barrier nine, fifth block, three numbers behind barrier three. | |
| 10 | 10 | Marble Bar | Noor Haddad | Vera Lindqvist | 01983 | 27-6-3-3 | 26.15 | 32 | 3.8% | Thirty-two numbers off barrier ten at $26.15, eighth on the table. |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column.
Prices on this page are the draw weighting in another notation. They are reference figures published with the card, not odds available anywhere, and not a betting recommendation.
A field is fixed when the card is published: there are no scratchings, no non-runners and no starting price. Why that follows from the draw.
The draw
The result is a weighted draw of 1,000 numbers without replacement: each runner holds a block of numbers in proportion to its price, a number is drawn once, and the animation is rendered from the order that comes out. Everything used to produce this race is printed below, so the race can be reconstructed.
- Draw id
- TIN-R8-00ABCC
- Engine
- GP-Draw 4.2
- Seed
- 00abcc8a052939f5
- Numbers in the draw
- 1,000
- Book
- 119.4%
- Margin
- 19.4%
Drawn order, by saddlecloth: 2 → 4 → 3 → 1 → 7 → 10 → 5 → 9 → 6 → 8
A draw without replacement cannot produce a dead heat, and a field that is fixed at publication cannot produce a late scratching. How a virtual race is decided works through the arithmetic in full.
Result
| Pos | Runner | Jockey | Time | Margin | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockyard Gate | Priya Sandhu | 1:55.4 | — | 5.51 | 18.1% |
| 2 | Paper Lantern | Ruby Nankervis | 0.75L | 3.93 | 25.4% | |
| 3 | Pennyroyal | Cleo Baird | 3.0L | 8.29 | 12.1% | |
| 4 | Ninepin | Jonty Mapp | 4.8L | 3.07 | 32.6% | |
| 5 | Switchyard | Teddy Lamb | 7.5L | 18.60 | 5.4% | |
| 6 | Marble Bar | Noor Haddad | 9.0L | 26.15 | 3.8% | |
| 7 | Sunday Pages | Eli Vandermeer | 11L | 28.86 | 3.5% | |
| 8 | Old Telegraph | Linc Pappas | 16L | 8.54 | 11.7% | |
| 9 | Dry Lightning | Kaz Tupou | 17L | 41.84 | 2.4% | |
| 10 | Tally Room | Rhys Calder | 20L | 22.62 | 4.4% |
The draw opened 2, 4, 3, 1, so the third, second and fourth blocks filled the placings and the 273-number top block came out fourth, 4.8 lengths back. Three-quarters of a length separated the first two on the screen, and twenty lengths covered first to last.
Dividends
- Win
- $5.51
- Place
- $2.50
- Forecast
- $10.31
- Tricast
- $32.64
Dividends are what the published weighting implies for a one-credit stake in the free demo. Nothing is staked on this circuit and nothing is paid out.
The form desk
-
Top of the market
3.07 273 numbers · 27.3% true
-
Where the book is thinnest
5.51 152 numbers · 15.2% true
-
The outsider
41.84 20 numbers · 2.0% true
The house position, stated as it is on every card: the order was drawn from the published table, and nothing in the result is evidence about a runner.
The draw opened 2, 4, 3, 1 — the third block, the second block, the fourth block, then the top one. Three-quarters of a rendered length separated the first two, which is the shortest margin the circuit has printed on the synthetic, and 4.8 lengths covered the first four. Ninepin held 273 numbers and did not come out first, which a block of 273 fails to do about seven times in ten.
The winner is the reason this card gets cited. Stockyard Gate held 152 numbers here, 67 in the Trial at Wattle Hill and 20 in the Class B Flat at Mallee Park, and won all three, returning $5.51, $12.78 and $40.78. Three wins from five starts at three prices with nothing to do with each other is the clearest demonstration the circuit has produced that a form string is a log and not a tendency — the account is in this report.
Priya Sandhu rode it, which put her on two of the programme's eight winners from five rides, and Faisal Karim trains it, which accounts for all three of his wins from eight runners. Five rides is not a sample and eight runners is not a sample, and the ledger says so in its own first paragraph.
Wren Tabakoff, Editor
Form desk columns are editorial opinion only. They are not financial advice, not investment recommendations and not an inducement to wager. A weighted draw has no form to read in the predictive sense; what these columns argue about is the published weighting.
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